4th International Workshop
on Uncertainty in Atmospheric Emissions
7-9 October 2015, Krakow, Poland

About the Workshop

    The assessment of greenhouse gases and air pollutants (indirect GHGs) emitted to and removed from the atmosphere ranks high on the political and scientific agendas. Building on the UN climate process, the international community strives to address the long-term challenge of climate change collectively and comprehensively, and to take concrete and timely action that proves sustainable and robust in the future. Under the umbrella of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, country parties to the Convention have, since the mid-1990s, published annual or periodic inventories of emissions and removals, and continued to do so after the Kyoto Protocol to the Convention ceased in 2012. Policymakers use these inventories to develop strategies and policies for emission reductions and to track the progress of those strategies and policies. Regulatory agencies and corporations rely on emission inventories to establish compliance records, where formal commitments to limit emissions exist.

    International concern and cooperation aim increasingly at policy-oriented solutions to the climate change problem. Therefore a number of issues circulating around uncertainty have come to fore, which were undervalued or left unmentioned at the time of the Kyoto Protocol but require adequate recognition under a workable and legislated successor agreement. To name a few:
- Accounting and verification of emissions in space and time,
- Compliance with emission reduction commitments,
- Risk of exceeding future temperature targets,
- Evaluating effects of mitigation versus adaptation, versus intensity of induced impact at home and elsewhere,
- Accounting of traded emission permits.

    The 4th International Workshop on Uncertainty in Atmospheric Emissions is jointly organized by the Systems Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences, the Austrian-based International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, and the Lviv Polytechnic National University. The 4th Uncertainty Workshop follows up and expands on the scope of the earlier Uncertainty Workshops - the 1st Workshop in 2004 in Warsaw, Poland; the 2nd Workshop in 2007 in Laxenburg, Austria; and the 3rd Workshop in 2010 in Lviv, Ukraine.

   International experts are invited to address uncertainty concerning, but not limited to:

  1. - Achieving accurate and precise emission inventories
  2. - Integrating uncertainty across spatial scales (local to global)
  3. - Integrating uncertainty across temporal scales (diagnostic and prognostic)
  4. - Reconciling uncertainty bottom-up and top-down
  5. - Integrating uncertainty across systems scales (e.g., across GHGs, direct and indirect; sources versus sinks; risk of induced versus chance of avoided impacts, etc.)
  6. - Verifying GHG emissions to support international climate agreements
  7. - Complying with GHG emission limitations and reductions
  8. - Uncertainty in trading emissions
  9. - Communicating and valuing uncertainty (today and in the future)
  10. - Integrating uncertainty into decision-making
  11. - Advanced systems analysis techniques of handling uncertainty

(last update: 05/10/2015)